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Recognizing Experienced Wildland Fire Supervisors

There are many studies resulting in formulas that are applied to pre-determining the fire behavior, should one start in forest fuels. These efforts were made to assist forest managers who plan pre suppression actions which are designed to better protect the values at risk. These formulae and matrix models are developed for planning purposes and are not exact predictors of fire behavior. Thus, these methods are not practical for tactical applications and are not used by fire officers on the fireline.

There have not been many studies made of how experienced fire officers predict the variances of fire behavior using visual observations of the fire to determine its potential. "Drillground commanders" stay engaged until they are run out while the expert officer pre-determines actions from signs of danger and makes adjustments, before being run out by the fire.

Before checking off the L.C.E.S. list fireline supervisors need to determine and explain the following:

• When and where will the fire behavior be within their control capabilities, to assure progress is made.
• How the fire will behave throughout the shift, to properly plan the tactical action.
  (Fire Behavior Tactics)
• When and where the potential fire behavior is beyond safe thresholds, to pick proper safety areas and escape routes.
  A "drillground commander" starts action without much regard for the up coming changes that will occur during the shift.

Before engaging in suppression action, a skilled and experienced officer determines the answers to these questions using the information gained from observations of the fire burning in the area. This is the size-up of the situation.

To become skilled and experienced takes a long time and a lot of exposure to the dangers of firefighting. The Campbell Prediction System is a course of study which uses specialized logic and language to describe fireground observations. The logic and language enables students to learn in hours what takes most firefighters years to learn. Reducing the time firefighters engage fires while learning the art, is an important safety advance.