The Campbell Prediction System (CPS)

Wildland Fire Specialists, LLC.
1210 Sunset Pl. Ojai, Ca. 93023
Voice: (805) 646-7026
Fax: (805) 646-8690
E-Mail: doug@dougsfire.com

Learn from the Past....Predict the Future

Overview
FAQs
CPS Book
Language Handout
Order Online
Articles and News

Overview

Doug Campbell's US Forest Service career in fire control spanned thirty-two years between 1952 and 1984. He spent eighteen years as a District Fire Control/Management Officer. He became qualified in operations, planning and in fire behavior analysis. On many occasions, between 1987 and the present, Doug has been called back to active duty to perform duties as a fire behavior analyst (FBA) on wildland fires. He agrees to perform FBA duties if the ordering agency will agree to allow an experience base approach rather than the accepted fire modeling system normally required of an FBA. During this period The Campbell Prediction System (CPS) was developed and tested on active wildland fires.

The success and the acceptance of this practical and user friendly system encouraged him to author and publish a book titled The Campbell Prediction System. Since 1991 some 3,000 people have taken formal training in CPS and eight agencies/fire departments have adopted the training. Course evaluations have been excellent showing that 90%+ of the students rate it very useful training.

The current "state of art" situation is that firefighters are infused with the 52 rules of engagement to provide them with a safe relationship with wildland fire. A rule commanding them to know "the current and expected fire behavior" is not an assurance that they will know. The successful firefighters need to appraise the situation they find themselves in before rule compliance can be assured.

Summary

The Campbell Prediction System is a practical way to use on-scene observations in order to determine fire behavior strategies and tactics. A combination of scientific research and the knowledge of the successful firefighters' methods and practices are utilized to explain fire behavior. In these situations the observed fire behavior becomes the baseline for fire behavior predictions. A special logic replaces intuition allowing an explanation of how tactics are developed. Developing a strong case for acting on the potential rather than waiting for the fire to make the change would save many of the lives lost because firefighters had reacted too late. If people could explain what the potential of the fire is in their situation, few accidents would happen. The Campbell Prediction System provides the logic and language to do so.