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   by Doug Campbell

The Campbell Prediction System (CPS) is a quick and practical way to predict, verify and communicate when and where wildland fire behavior changes can occur. Common among burnover accidents is an unanticipated change in fire behavior. Those firefighters that act on accurate fire behavior predictions avoid burnovers and are safer and better firefighters. The focus of the CPS is to predict fire behavior changes and the potential for dangerous fire intensities.

The observed fire behavior is the baseline for fire behavior predictions in firefighting situations. These observations include the forces of wind, slope and pre-heat and their relation to one another. They are the basis for predicting changes in fire behavior.

Changes in the strength and alignment of wind, slope and pre-heat cause variations in fire intensity. As long as these fire danger conditions are stable, the behavior that a fire exhibits will be repeated. Determining the conditions of past behavior and identifying similar conditions on the fire ground determines when and where the fire will repeat itself. Firefighters who recognize these predictive elements can implement proper fire behavior tactics. They can prevail more often when they fight fire while it is weak or out of alignment.

The Campbell Prediction System teaches firefighters how to use logic rather than intuition to make decisions on the fire line. It teaches a language to communicate the observed and predicted fire behavior. CPS teaches firefighters how to discuss a fire's potential, assuring a safe and effective fire fighting operation.

Be sure to read Doug Campbell's new paper, The South Canyon Fire .